The Bert Level

The Threats & Protection - Advisory System created by the US Department of Homeland Security was supposed to be an easy way for Americans to understand the current level of risk of terrorist attack within the country.

It appears that the creators of the system were re-using the classic colour levels created by park wardens of national parks (US and Canada) to convey to visitors/campers the current risk of wildfires. Wardens would adjust the dial daily between green (low) and red (high) levels of danger that a wildfire could start because of careless campers.

The US Threat Level has been yellow almost since it's inception 6 months after the attacks on 9/11. It is currently at orange - a point it has reached a half a dozen times. The Homeland Security Department's web page recommends that at level orange : "All Americans, including those traveling in the transportation systems, should continue to be vigilant, take notice of their surroundings, and report suspicions items or activities to local authorities immediately."


So, the major criticisms of the threat reporting system has been regarding the perception of the public that there was no threat - something that is warranted given that people can't retain a heightened level of awareness for very long. While the current wildfire threat was based on observations, measurements, research and previous history - the terrorist threat is based on secret knowledge or sometimes even perceived threats based on rumours.

With threats like wildfire, people began to realize that the high risk level meant that they should be diligent in the park regions. But with terrorist threats, there is little conveyed by Homeland Security (beyond being "aware") that people can do, resulting in little confidence in the system.


The Bert Level
The muppet terrorist threat levels were created to poke fun at the Homeland Department's system- belittling it much to the chagrin of those that would like it to be taken seriously.

A Frank Guide
This blogger's humourous view of the levels is a bold statement and I quite enjoyed this section on what to do at the different levels for incidents that may occur in your neighborhood :

I see a stranger outside.

• Green: Maybe he could give your kids a ride to school.
• Blue: He might be lost; ask him what he's doing here.
• Yellow: Stay in your house and avoid him. Strangers bad.
• Orange: Run outside and pistol-whip him while questioning his involvement with terrorism.
• Red: Kill him; no questions asked.

You Design It
Several years ago I was asked to program a colour coded dial for the Electricity System Operator in Alberta. The hourly peak demand for electricity on the system was more than could be generated, even with reserves imported from other provinces.

They wanted to convey to the public that the threat of a brownout or destabilization of the electric grid was low, medium or highly likely. After performing the initial analysis and reviewing the requirements with several engineers, system controllers and executives - we finally determined that neither a programmatic implementation based on projected load nor a dial reset by humans each morning would suffice.

There was no easy way to let the public know that the electricity demand would out pace the hourly supply available. To this day (5 years later), they still only utilize a complicated tabular report to show the actual and forecast totals.